Market Morsel: Chinese wheat whispers

Market Morsel

As an ag expert, China is among the great voids in details. There have actually constantly been concerns getting independent details from the middle kingdom. There were concerns a number of years ago when experts began going ‘ missing out on‘.

It’s unusual for China to have record crop after record crop. They usually appear able to pull a bunny out of the hat and produce a huge crop, no matter the weather conditions.

News was reported in the Chinese press over night that heavy rains affected the biggest wheat-producing province (Henan).

There are quotes that as much as 20mmt of wheat might be unharvestable. According to the USDA, China was on track to produce 140mmt of wheat this year (teal bar), however a drop to 120mmt would make the crop the most affordable given that 2011.

Over the last few years, China has actually been necessary much greater volumes of wheat than in the past. In the previous year, they imported 9.96 mmt, therefore far they have actually imported 6mmt in 2023. This time in 2015, they had actually just imported 3.7 mmt.

So currently they have a huge import program on, and if their crop remains in a sorry state, we might see import volume boost higher.

We need to be extremely mindful prior to purchasing a brand-new Landcruiser off the back of this details. We understand that Chinese information are difficult to confirm; let’s simply see how this one works out. A minimum of in the meantime.

The marketplace has not truly responded to this news/rumour.

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